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Electrification can reduce the UK's total primary energy demand by up to 70 percent

  • Writer: Vikram Kumar
    Vikram Kumar
  • May 24
  • 7 min read

Updated: May 26

NOTE: This report has been authored by a human with support from AI tools, including ChatGPT and Google Gemini. While care has been taken to verify all data and assumptions, AI-generated content carries inherent risks of error or omission. Given the importance of this topic and its potential real-world impact, all figures should be independently validated. For any live infrastructure planning or investment decisions, developers should consult their local grid operator and engage qualified, chartered professionals to produce fully indemnified engineering designs and investment models.


IMPORTANT CORRECTION: An earlier draft of this report mistakenly conflated the thermal output of heat pumps with their electrical input. The corrected version recognises that heat pumps typically require around 3.5 kW of electrical input to deliver 12.25 kW of thermal output (SCOP 3.5). This has been updated throughout all relevant calculations. This error illustrates both the value and the limitations of AI-assisted drafting. While AI can accelerate modelling and scenario-building, particularly for planning in areas like data centres and electrification, it cannot replace rigorous review. All figures, including those for data centres and EV charging, should be subject to ongoing expert validation.


The purpose of this report is not to be 100% definitive, but to help inform and advance the public conversation around infrastructure readiness and the transition to electrification.


The purpose is not to be 100% right but to enable and progress the conversation towards meaningful deployment.



Introduction

Electrification can reduce the UK's total primary energy demand by up to 70 percent, transforming the economy and lowering emissions. This is because heat pumps use around 70% less energy to produce the same amount of heat as gas boilers, and EVs are approximately 70% more efficient than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The opportunity for grid development is immense.

However, this shift will place enormous strain on the existing high-voltage, medium-voltage, and low-voltage grid infrastructure. Without a coordinated national strategy, the UK risks repeating recent grid collapse incidents seen in countries like Spain and Portugal. On the other hand, if well managed, this transition enables the onshoring of energy production and value creation, strengthening national resilience and unlocking significant export potential for British technology and expertise.


Office of National Statistics UK 2019 Data (converted to TWh).

Thermal Units, Primary Energy, Final Energy and Work Done will need important distinctions in order to produce accurate electrical and financial models.


This report builds on the core hypothesis that the United Kingdom uses approximately 1,644 terawatt hours or 141 million tonnes of oil equivalent energy per year, based on 2019 figures. This baseline does not yet account for the future reduction in energy demand enabled by electrification or the offsetting rise in final electricity use from growing numbers of heat pumps, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence systems, and data centres.

Major infrastructure investors including Blackstone, BlackRock, and JP Morgan have all published reports forecasting strong growth in UK data centre capacity, which will contribute materially to future electricity demand.

Electrification via heat pumps, electric vehicles, solar energy, wind power, and battery storage can drastically reduce primary energy demand, emissions, and system inefficiencies while enabling the UK to export its model through international climate finance.


UK Households and Vehicle Fleet

As of 2023, the UK contains approximately 28,400,000 households. Licensed vehicles total 41,200,000, including 33,600,000 private cars. Electrifying these energy-consuming assets is essential for decarbonisation.


Energy Efficiency Opportunity

Heat pumps operate at 350 to 500 percent efficiency (SCOP 3.5 to 5), reducing heating-related energy demand by more than two thirds compared to gas boilers.

Electric vehicles convert 70 percent of energy to motion compared to about 25 percent for internal combustion engines.

Solar generation peaks in summer when daytime energy demand is relatively high, though overall national demand is typically higher in winter.

Wind power complements solar, often active in winter months.

Battery storage increasingly provides short term peak shaving and load shifting.


Current Uptake and Scaling Targets

There are over 1,015,000 zero emission vehicles in the UK, including 931,000 battery electric cars. EV sales reached 381,970 in 2024, accounting for 19.6 percent of total registrations.

Heat pump deployment remains low: just 40,400 installs in 2023 and 42,000 in the first three quarters of 2024. Cumulative installations have now passed 200,000, far short of the 600,000 annual target for 2028.


Peak Load Calculations vs Grid Capacity

If all 28,000,000 homes used heat pumps drawing 3.5 kilowatts of electrical input simultaneously, total demand would reach 98 gigawatts. If 20,000,000 EVs charged at 7.4 kilowatts simultaneously, the additional load would be 148 gigawatts. This yields a theoretical stress test peak of 246 gigawatts.

The UK grid is currently designed to meet a winter peak of 48.3 gigawatts, with 74.8 gigawatts of derated generation capacity. Planning margins of 5 to 10 percent are typical. Theoretical simultaneous load figures must be understood as stress test scenarios rather than real-world expectations.


Grid Infrastructure Reinforcement Requirements

National Grid Electricity Transmission plans to invest up to £35 billion between 2026 and 2031 to nearly double transmission capacity. The Pathway to 2030 programme identified 88 critical projects required to connect renewables and meet rising demand. At the local level, UK Power Networks forecasts a 26-fold increase in heat pump connections and expects 4.5 million EVs in its region by 2030. Ofgem’s RIIO-ED2 price control has allocated £20.9 billion to reinforce local grids, with £2.7 billion earmarked specifically to expand capacity. Without sustained investment in transformers, substations, and local feeders, this rise in demand risks exceeding safe operating limits, especially during winter peaks.


Load Diversity and Management

The Energy Systems Catapult reports that after diversity, the maximum demand for heat pumps is about 1.7 kilowatts per home. This would result in a more realistic winter peak of around 40 gigawatts for home heating. Smart charging of EVs, aligned with flexible tariffs, can defer charging to night-time low demand periods.


AI and Data Centre Electricity Demand

The growth of AI and data centres is expected to add 50 to 100 terawatt hours of annual electricity demand by 2040 in the UK alone. BlackRock and McKinsey forecast up to a sixfold increase in UK data centre loads by 2033, driven by 24-hour AI computation and cooling systems. Unlike home energy use, data centres require constant baseload-like electricity. Their cooling systems alone can consume 20 to 30 percent of total energy. Companies like NVIDIA and Texas Instruments are deploying liquid cooling and thermal management systems to reduce energy intensity. Despite efficiency gains, data centre growth is now seen as a structural driver of national demand, on par with EVs.

Strategic Implications and Export Potential

Electrification can cut UK energy demand by up to 70 percent due to efficiency improvements. This allows the UK to deliver net zero while reducing total system stress. Such a transformation will require investments in:

  • Low voltage grid reinforcement

  • Flexible demand platforms

  • Community energy systems and microgrids

Success would not only decarbonise UK domestic sectors but also create exportable templates for global climate finance initiatives. With rising interest from sovereign funds, green banks, and international partners, UK firms and policy bodies could shape replicable clean energy infrastructure models.


Role of Hydrogen

Hydrogen may have niche roles in industrial processes. However, due to low round-trip efficiencies, it is not appropriate for domestic heating or transport unless major breakthroughs occur.

That said, with a rapidly growing pipeline of wind and solar generation, hydrogen may serve a useful backup role as a form of emergency seasonal storage. Electrolysers convert surplus renewable electricity into hydrogen, which can be stored in salt caverns for months. Live projects such as Aldbrough (Equinor and SSE) and HyNet in Cheshire are planning to deliver over one terawatt hour of salt cavern hydrogen storage capacity by the early 2030s. These caverns, previously used for natural gas, offer self-healing properties and rapid discharge capacity akin to hydroelectric storage. In emergency scenarios, hydrogen turbines could deliver multi-gigawatt backup power during periods of low wind and solar generation.

Conclusion


Localised Grid Resiliency: Transformer Sizing, Protection Design and Peak Demand Coordination

To ensure resilient and future-ready electrical infrastructure, the sizing of transformers, feeders and system capacity must reflect the combined coincident peak demand of all major energy-consuming applications, not just heat pumps and electric vehicles. This includes electric cooking, water heating, industrial equipment, HVAC systems, data centres, electrified transport and commercial facilities. Each introduces distinct load profiles that can align during peak periods, particularly in winter or under extreme weather, imposing severe stress on local distribution networks.


The March 2025 Heathrow Airport blackout demonstrated the consequences of inadequate local grid resilience. A fire at the North Hyde substation disabled a key transformer, causing widespread disruption to over 1,300 flights and affecting 200,000 passengers. This incident exposed the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to single points of failure and highlighted the need for redundancy and contingency planning.

Beyond load modelling, developers must incorporate rigorous protection coordination and insulation coordination into grid-connected infrastructure. Relay settings, fault clearance times, and discrimination curves must be engineered to ensure rapid and selective isolation of faults. Likewise, insulation design must account for impulse withstand voltage, switching surges and overvoltages. These elements are often overlooked in distributed energy and EV integration projects, increasing the risk of equipment failure under fault or transient conditions. Grid capacity is not just a question of megawatts, it’s about ensuring safe, stable operation under dynamic and faulted states. Failure to address these factors will ultimately impact network reliability, connection availability and long-term energy pricing.


Conclusion

The UK can reduce its total primary energy use from 1,644 terawatt hours down to around 500 to 700 terawatt hours by electrifying everything that can be electrified. With a mix of heat pumps, EVs, smart storage, AI-resilient data centre planning, and intelligent grid design, a peak load ceiling of 90 to 100 gigawatts is manageable with sufficient foresight. The UK can become a global demonstrator of electrification for sustainable development, achieving carbon, cost, and competitiveness gains at once.







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